预测市场平台Polymarket在最近的美国大选 中声名鹊起，10 月交易量接近 25 亿美元，而11月更是已累计超过120亿美元。一些用户通过下注选举赚得盆满钵满，但数据最终显示，迄今为止，大多数投注者在该平台上实际上都遭受了损失。

Polymarket允许用户就今年流传的多数事件和文化问题进行下注，从美国总统选举的获胜者到下一任詹姆斯·邦德的扮演者等。该平台已存在多年，但在2024年，由于选举热潮的推动，其受欢迎程度飙升。

在大选期间，Polymarket越来越多地被主流媒体引用，作为传统民意调查之外的替代信息源。事实上，Polymarket的创始人兼首席执行官Shayne Coplan认为，预测市场比民意调查更准确——此前，多项民意调查显示哈里斯将获胜，而近几周来，特朗普在Polymarket上一直稳居领先地位。

尽管Polymarket作为“预言神器”的声誉日益提升，但绝大多数用户实际上都亏了钱。

根据多个Dune仪表板收集的区块链数据，86%的账户实现了负的盈亏边距，这意味着大多数用户的投注都是错误的，或者是在亏损时卖出的。

幸运的是，平均投注金额并不算大，最常见的投注范围是100至500美元，占比接近28%，其次是10至50美元，占比26%，以及0至10美元，占比18%。

LayerHub提供的额外数据则揭示了一个更为严峻的平衡状况，指出在实现盈利方面，约有88%的用户都处于亏损状态。根据LayerHub的分析，在平台上大约37.1万个唯一钱包中，近23.7万个钱包的损失在100美元或以下，这是迄今为止最大的类别。

而根据LayerHub的数据，Polymarket上只有4004个钱包实现了1000美元或以上的盈利，仅占平台总唯一钱包的1%多一点。

Can you keep a secret? Image: Shutterstock

Prediction Markets Invite Insider Trading—And That’s a Good Thing, Experts Say

Think of the term “insider trading,” and what comes to mind? Maybe someone in a suit, whispering about a secret new product or a quarterly earnings report that’s yet to drop. Perhaps there’s a park bench involved, or an envelope, or a lot of whiskey.  That image is now outdated. The explosion in popularity of prediction betting markets like Polymarket this year has not just changed how people make money online—it’s also revolutionized the pool of who, exactly, has access to information with pote...

Deep Dives长读
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Sander Lutz

爱荷华大学的专家Thomas Reitz在10月接受Decrypt采访时表示，预测市场需要同时吸引高信息（可能包括内幕人士）和低信息的用户，以创造足够的流动性和潜在利润，从而有效运作。“这是一种平衡的艺术，”他说。

从Polymarket的数据来看，显然是“愚蠢的资金”承担了大部分损失，而“聪明的资金”则因此积累了巨额利润。

Image created by Decrypt using AI

Will Polymarket Launch a Token? Why Some Traders Are Betting on an Airdrop

Will Polymarket have an airdrop? This year's staggering rise of the crypto prediction market has fueled speculation that the platform will debut its own token, and potentially reward its growing pool of users. And some of those users already appear to be making moves to improve their chances of scoring big. To be clear, Polymarket has yet to announce plans for a token, and the company did not reply to Decrypt's request for comment. But amid surging trading volume alongside the U.S. election cycl...

新闻硬币
5 最小阅读
Ryan S. Gladwin

值得注意的是，该平台还涌现了大量用户试图通过非法手段利用平台获取未来可能的代币空投。他们通过一种名为“交易量刷单”的方法在Polymarket上反复买卖头寸。这样做导致许多账户虽然只是损失了几块钱，但最终还是亏了钱。

此外，Polymarket现在面临在法国被禁止的潜在风险，因为法国国家博彩管理局（ANJ）已于周三展开调查。ANJ表示，目前正在“审查[Polymarket的]运营情况”，以评估其是否符合法国博彩立法。

Don't let whales splash the pot. Image: Shutterstock

Mystery Prediction Market Whale Made $47 Million Betting on Trump

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新闻市场
3 最小阅读
André Beganski

这一审查是在交易者Theo4（已确认为法国国籍）通过四个账户从4500万美元的投注中获利4700万美元后出现的。尽管这些钱几乎全部下注于特朗普再次入主白宫，但Polymarket已否认存在任何不当行为。

Chainalysis在周三晚些时候表示，根据似乎与Theo4有关联的其他账户，其总利润实际上可能高达7870万美元。无论Theo4最终获得了多少百万美元的横财，很明显的是，这位鲸鱼投资者的巨大胜利在Polymarket用户中只是少数现象。

由Andrew Hayward编辑

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