Difference in Bull and Bear Crypto Market Gains Is Negligible, Say Analysts

By Pedro Solimano

The adage that time in the market beats timing the market is more relevant than ever.

According to an analysis by crypto research company Ecoinometrics, the difference in monthly returns between bulls and bears is negligent–meaning you’re better off placing your bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum whenever it works best for you.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have been quite similar in their price performances over the years. Both assets disregard whether they are in upbeat or downturned markets, with the exception of Ethereum’s first bull market back after its launch in 2015.

https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1709982491602522196/photo/1

For Nick, the founder of Ecoinometrics, timing the market is a fool’s errand. He told Decrypt, “there is way too much uncertainty in financial markets to do that.” pointing out adjusting your investing strategy due to market conditions “does make sense.”

At Ecoinometrics they call their investing “tactical,” and point to two approaches when thinking of buying: long term macro cycles and market liquidity conditions.

The toil in timing the market ultimately boils down to time frames, said William Cai, co-partner of financial services company Wilshire Phoenix.

“Market timing historically has shown to be difficult to earn consistent outperformance, especially in the long term,” Cai told Decrypt. Given the fact that crypto assets are still new, he considers “a long term view and investment horizon is appropriate.”

In other words, simply be patient. Cai’s perspectives latch on to many other successful investors who have lambasted those who tried to pick the exact moment to buy or sell an asset. Instead, they point to a consistent and recurring investment approach known as dollar cost averaging (DCA) is the winner.

Oliver Veliz, a professional trader with more than 37 years in the trade, told Decrypt that he has been dollar cost averaging in traditional markets since 1981 and has “never stopped.” For BItcoin, this has been his go-to strategy since 2020.

By removing price concerns, “establishing order in one’s approach to accumulation and most importantly eliminating volatility,” the strategy becomes “magic,” he concluded.

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