Political turmoil in the U.S. has prompted surging interest in the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, with users wagering hundreds of millions of dollars on the outcome of the presidential election in November.
Polymarket allows anyone to create a market to wager the outcome of nearly any event. With fewer than 90 days until the election, political betting pools are on the rise. In July, activity on the platform surged, with close to 40,000 traders collectively betting well over $300 million across all sorts of pools.
While much of the money allocated to Polymarket pools has gone to the most popular wagers—such as who will be the next U.S. president—other investors have taken a more unorthodox approach.
Indeed, pools have emerged to cover a host of unusual political scenarios. These are some of the most curious political betting pools currently on Polymarket—some of which are real head-scratchers.
Will Harris Campaign Accept Crypto Donations This Month?
As of this writing, users have put up just over $53,000 to bet on whether Kamala Harris’ campaign will accept crypto donations by September.
For crypto enthusiasts, the odds currently available on Polymarket don’t look promising: at this point the pool gives only a 14% chance that this outcome will come to pass sometime in the month of August.
Note that, in order to resolve to a “yes” outcome, the campaign only needs to announce its intention to accept crypto donations in August, not actually implement a donation mechanism.
Will Trump Launch a Coin Before the Election?
Polymarket users have placed bets on whether Donald Trump will launch a cryptocurrency prior to the election. The outcome will be “yes” if “conclusive, definitive evidence” emerges that Trump was involved in the launch of a new token by the end of the day on November 4.
More than $263,000 is currently on the table for this bet, though the pool gives 19% odds of a favorable outcome—rising significantly after Trump's sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. teased that they're working on a “huge” crypto project.
Will Trump Be in Jail Before Election Day?
If Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison prior to the election in November, “yes” voters in this pool will win a payout. This pool has been in place since January of this year and the odds of a “yes” outcome have climbed as high as 25%, though they are currently just 5%. Over $1.4 million rides on this outcome.
Will Trump Be President By September 1?
One of the wackiest political pools of all is one concerning a scenario in which Trump becomes president before September 1 of this year.
This date is ahead of both the election and next January’s inauguration date, so it would theoretically require Trump to be the Speaker of the House and to succeed both President Biden and Vice President Harris in the next month. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this outcome has only done as well as 2%, and now has 0% odds.
Covid Lab Leak Confirmed By U.S. in 2024?
Some of the unusual political pools on Polymarket do not revolve around the upcoming election. One example is a pool, currently representing $276,000 in total bets, on whether the U.S. government will confirm that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab. At this writing, the odds of a “yes” outcome are just 8%.
Will the U.S. Confirm That Aliens Exist in 2024?
Conspiracy theorists may choose to focus on another wild Polymarket pool, in this case questioning whether the U.S. government confirms that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the end of the year. About $115,000 rests on this outcome for now, though at 4%, it has roughly the same odds as Trump spending two days in prison prior to Election Day.
Will A New Country Buy Bitcoin in 2024?
Another pool particularly relevant to crypto enthusiasts asks whether a new country will buy Bitcoin for the first time this year. Any sovereign UN member state which has not previously disclosed a Bitcoin purchase has the potential to ensure a “yes” outcome by making an announcement of this type. Over $73,000 rides on this outcome, which currently has a 39% chance of occurring, per Polymarket.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa