Bitcoin edged up to highs of $61,600 in early European trading today, as investors nervously await the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' release of the September jobs report.
At time of publication, the price of Bitcoin has pulled back to around $61,300, up 1% on the day, per data from CoinGecko.
Market experts believe this data could play a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy direction in the coming months, potentially affecting crypto prices.
Ethereum also showed a slight uptick, rising by 1.1% to $2,375. However, both cryptocurrencies have experienced declines over the past week, with Bitcoin down 7% and Ethereum down 11%, according to data from CoinGecko.
Scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, the September jobs report is expected to provide clues on how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be regarding interest rate cuts in November.
Economists predict a slight decline in new nonfarm payrolls from 142,000 in August to 140,000 in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
The Federal Reserve’s response to these figures will be crucial for the crypto market, as a stable economic outlook may prompt a more measured rate-cut cycle, which analysts believe could provide a favorable environment for a rebound in crypto prices.
Despite the recent market turbulence, some analysts indicate that Bitcoin might be on the verge of a short-term recovery.
CryptoQuant's analysis of the Coinbase Premium Index suggests that demand from U.S.-based investors remains strong. "The continued rise in demand from U.S.-based investors suggests renewed upward pressure," CryptoQuant analysts noted, adding that the daily moving average has crossed above the weekly moving average—a pattern historically linked with subsequent price increases.
This aligns with the current market environment, where Bitcoin recently corrected from $66,000 to $61,000 at the start of October. CryptoQuant's analysis implies that these conditions could herald a short-term recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
However, recent ETF flows indicate a market in flux.
On October 3, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a third consecutive day of net outflows. In total, $54.1 million exited the investment products, with (FBTC) seeing outflows of $37.2 million and (ARKB) recording a significant outflow of $57.9 million, according to data from SoSo Value.
In contrast, (IBIT) reported inflows of $35.9 million, signaling that some investors still see value in Bitcoin amid the broader sell-off. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs reported total net outflows of $3.1 million, highlighting cautious investor sentiment across major cryptocurrencies.
Sell-off ‘nearing its end’
Analysts at 10x Research present a cautiously optimistic view, suggesting that the current sell-off may be nearing its conclusion. They point out that Bitcoin has a history of corrections reversing between the 5th and 7th of each month, hinting that a turning point could be near.
"The early-month sell-off is nearing its end, as lows typically occur between the 5th and 7th of each month," 10x Research said. They also note that weak ISM manufacturing data and concerns over U.S. employment have contributed to recent market declines. However, they argue that "evidence is growing that U.S. economic growth remains solid," which might lead to a more gradual rate-cut cycle by the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, institutional investors, particularly OTC desks, are playing a significant role in the recent market movement, with data indicating that these desks have been actively selling Bitcoin, contributing to its price drop from $65,000 to $61,000. However, as balances on these desks begin to rebuild, the sell pressure appears to be easing.
10x Research added that Investor sentiment seems relatively calm, as implied volatility remains low and demand for put options is minimal—suggesting limited concern over further downside risks. The research firm’s analysts added that this view aligns with the historical trend where liquidations in Bitcoin futures often signal market lows, hinting that the current sell-off might be winding down.