What Happens Next

Markets expect BTC Price not to be above $63,000 on August 1, 2026, at 11:59pm UTC.

84% probability· resolves Aug 1

Markets expect BTC above $60,000 on August 4, 4PM UTC.

93% probability· resolves Aug 4

Markets expect ETH above $1,700 on August 4, 4PM UTC.

95% probability· resolves Aug 4

Markets expect between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31.

99% probability· resolves Aug 15

Markets expect "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" to gross ≥ $280M in revenue in its opening weekend.

99% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) to hit (HIGH) $248 in August.

97% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) not to hit (LOW) $208 in August.

97% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Gold (XAUUSD) to hit $4,000 in August.

86% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect NVIDIA (NVDA) not to hit $256 in August.

95% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect NVIDIA (NVDA) to hit $200 in August.

93% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect S&P 500 (SPY) to hit $740 in August.

97% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect S&P 500 (SPY) not to hit (LOW) $670 in August.

95% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Silver (XAGUSD) not to hit $72 in August.

96% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Silver (XAGUSD) to hit (LOW) $58 in August.

85% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) to hit $315 in August.

91% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) to hit (LOW) $300 in August.

82% probability· resolves Sep 1

Markets expect no $POLY TGE before September.

88% probability· resolves Sep 30

Markets expect no Iranian Regime fall before October.

94% probability· resolves Sep 30

Markets expect Base not to TGE in 2026.

88% probability· resolves Dec 31

Markets expect no Bitcoin ATH before December 31 2026.

95% probability· resolves Jan 1, 2027

Markets expect HYPE not to flip SOL in 2026.

94% probability· resolves Jan 1, 2027

Markets expect Strategy not to hold over 1M BTC before 2027.

90% probability· resolves Jan 1, 2027

Markets expect Nigel Farage to win the Clacton by-election.

98% probability· resolves Jul 1, 2027