The Bitcoin price trajectory is set to be heavily influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Bernstein on Tuesday said, suggesting that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin could soar to unprecedented levels, exceeding $80,000 to $90,000.
However, in the event of a Kamala Harris victory, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin could see a sharp decline, potentially testing a new low in the $40,000 range.
"We expect Bitcoin to continue reacting to election odds, and turn more positive, if it starts sensing better Trump odds, and become range bound, if the race continues as ‘too close to call,'" said Gautam Chhugani, Global Head of Digital Assets at Bernstein, in a note shared with Decrypt.
He added that while Trump has been more overt in his courting of crypto voters, "Harris has been more conservative in her stance on digital assets, which could result in less regulatory support for the industry in the near term.”
Bernstein's analysis also factors in market sentiment, with the report mentioning that traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket have significantly increased positions on a Trump victory. "While not a certainty, the odds have shifted meaningfully in Trump’s favor, which suggests traders are preparing for a Trump win and its impact on markets, especially in the crypto sector,” the report said.
As of now, Polymarket shows a 7% lead for Trump over Harris. Polymarket’s odds are often seen as a reflection of market sentiment, and recent shifts in favor of Trump may impact Bitcoin's potential price movement in the near term.
It's been mentioned before that Polymarket explicitly excludes U.S. users from its platform and that its blockchain roots might mean its users have an inherent bias for Trump, who's made many more explicit campaign promises to the crypto industry than his opponent. But Bernstein disagrees for the simple reason that there's too much money on the line.
"We believe, the Polymarket liquidity with more than $1.5 billion of bets is real money in play and bettors would bet on probability than actually reflecting their bias," the analysts write.
They further highlighted that while both candidates support digital assets, Trump’s administration is expected to provide broader backing, especially in areas such as Bitcoin mining and institutional adoption. According to the report, Trump's policies could lead to Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high of $74,000, pushing the cryptocurrency to new heights.
“We anticipate that Bitcoin could touch $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump secures the presidency,” the analysts said. “However, if Harris wins, there’s a risk of Bitcoin testing the lower end of the $40,000 range in the near term, reflecting concerns over regulatory tightening.”
The report also emphasizes that the outcome of the election will have implications not only for Bitcoin but also for other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). “We expect other crypto assets to remain range-bound until there is more clarity post-election, with Bitcoin leading the market's movement,” the report states.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.